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Bruno Kahl, head of Germany’s intelligence service, believes Russia is considering testing NATO’s collective security guarantees. If hostilities in Ukraine were to end in the near future, this risk could become even greater.
As reported by dpa, Kahl shared this view in an interview with Deutsche Welle.
Kahl, who leads Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND), sees it as likely that Russia will try to challenge Western unity and the effectiveness of NATO’s Article 5, which states that an attack on one member country is considered an attack on all.
“We sincerely hope this won’t happen… But we must assume that Russia will want to test us, to check the unity of the West,” the intelligence chief said.
According to him, the timing and likelihood of such a “test” depend directly on how the war in Ukraine unfolds.
If the war ends before 2029-2030, Kahl noted, Russia could become a threat to Europe sooner.
“It is also possible that a concrete threat or attempt at blackmail by Russia against European states could happen earlier than previously expected… An earlier end to the war in Ukraine would allow the Russians to redirect their energy where they desire most – against Europe,” Kahl said.
He also stated that Russia hopes for a world order similar to that of the 1990s, where its “sphere of influence” expands further westward. In Moscow’s most desired scenario, the U.S. would withdraw its troops from Europe.
Meanwhile, on March 4, Germany’s CDU/CSU and SPD parties, currently negotiating a government under Friedrich Merz, agreed on a multi-billion-euro defense and infrastructure funding package through credit.
All defense spending exceeding 1% of GDP will be exempt from debt restrictions.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius called this decision a “historic day” for the Bundeswehr and Germany.
