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The Estonian Defense Forces Intelligence Center, in its weekly briefing cited by ERR, reports both Russian advances on the Pokrovsk-Kurakhove axis and successful Ukrainian counteractions on the Kupiansk front.
According to open-source geolocational data, Russian forces now control the settlement of Shevchenko, located 4 km northwest of Pokrovsk. This occupation affects supply routes connecting Pokrovsk to Zaporizhzhia, as noted by Estonian intelligence.
Ukrainian troops have demonstrated exceptional bravery in defending small settlements along the Sukhyi Yali River south of Kurakhove. Throughout the week, they resisted Russian efforts to encircle the area from the north and south.
Heavy Russian Losses
Despite limited progress, Russian forces have suffered substantial casualties. On the Pokrovsk axis alone, approximately 3,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in the past two weeks. These losses are expected to rise as fighting intensifies closer to Pokrovsk.
Kupiansk Front Success
Estonian intelligence also reports Ukrainian forces achieving notable successes on the Kupiansk front. Two Russian bridgeheads formed during their crossing of the Oskil River were eliminated, further stabilizing the area for Ukraine.
Weather and Tactical Challenges for Russia
Adverse weather conditions have partially hindered Russian operations. The use of aviation and heavy equipment has been restricted, limiting Russia’s ability to deploy its full combat potential.
Limited Operational Breakthroughs
While Russian forces are slowly advancing on the Pokrovsk front, they have yet to achieve an operational-level breakthrough. In response, Russia has intensified pressure on Ukrainian positions, particularly in the Kursk region. Estonian analysts predict that by year-end, this region could become a focal point of combat.
Broader Context
Elsewhere along the frontline, Ukrainian defenses are under less strain. NATO data confirms a recent acceleration in Russian advances, particularly in Donetsk Oblast, but analysts expect this momentum to slow after Pokrovsk, should Russian forces manage to capture it.
This analysis underscores the ongoing challenges faced by both sides and highlights the resilience of Ukrainian forces in critical areas.
Read also: British intelligence: Ukraine restraining Russia in Black Sea area
