Yesterday at 20:03
Never has been Wagner private military company and their leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, so present in the public eye as now. Putin’s former chef had been a technical person for a long time; why now he claims his place in the system of Russian power? And who are Wagner Group mercenaries? A hype project similar to Kadyrov’s followers, or a real fighting force?
Prigozhin, who preferred to take a backseat, is a public figure now. He criticizes Russia’s military command; he recruits prisoners from Russian prisons. Rumors are swirling that he sees himself almost as Putin’s successor. Why this is the case?
Of course, he isn’t a completely unknown person. It is believed that Prigozhin was one of the creators of the so-called “troll factory”, which controlled thousands of fake accounts on social media and tried to influence public opinion. Recently he admitted to founding the private military company known as Wagner in 2014 two thousand fourteen, reversing years of denials about his connection to the organization.
Prigozhin went public with the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The Western press even wrote that Prigozhin was the first to criticize the failures of the Russian army in Ukraine in front of Putin. Many are convinced that he and Kadyrov stand behind the appointment of General Surovikin, a new commander on the “Ukrainian front”. But what is the purpose of this? Is he aiming for Shoigu’s place? Or even for some higher office?
When Politico newspaper compiled a rating of twelve possible successors to Vladimir Putin, Prigozhin was on the list.
“He’s got his own paramilitary group, the Wagner Group, and they are a law unto themselves, because he does have a problem, constitutionally and of course, the Constitution can be changed. No one with a criminal record can be president.” Lecturer Stephen Hall of the University of Bath
Prigozhin announced the construction of “Wagner Centers” throughout Russia. Formally, it looks like a start-up, but what if this is an attempt to build a new party structure? It will have connections with criminals. It already has a military wing, which together with SurovIkin and Kadyrov will be able to “compete” with the FSB…
Many were frankly surprised by Prigozhin’s compliments to President Zelensky…
Perhaps, this is a message that he supposedly “can do better” to “negotiate with Kyiv”. An attempt to show his effectiveness and significance, and, apparently, to both Bankova and the Kremlin. Maybe, he is trying to get involved in the negotiation process?
In order to answer these questions, we should figure out who are the Wagnerites? How many of them are in Ukraine? How effective are they in this war? And how do they differ from the Kadyrovites?
In many ways, the effectiveness of the Wagnerites at the front was attributed to their autonomy. The most combat-ready units did not go into absurd frontal attacks. But at the same time, they held their positions when the regular army retreated.
Then something seems to have changed. Even six months ago the Wagner Group was indeed a combat-ready group with high demands. But then videos of how Prigozhin personally recruited prisoners in Russian prisons appeared on social media. He began a recruiting tour with colonies for former security forces and then switched to strict regime institutions. Prigozhin recruited about six thousand prisoners in the colonies! According to Russian human rights activist Olga Romanova, this figure is almost twice as high, eleven thousand, of which three thousand are already at the front.
How will the recruitment of thousands of prisoners affect the situation at the front? There is little sense from such recruits. The American Institute for the Study of War has calculated that more than 500 five hundred have already died, and the total loss of Wagnerites in Ukraine is up to a thousand people.
Why once elite formation becomes a hideout for the prisoners? The simple answer is money. The budget money goes for every new mercenary.
At first, Washington officials told about it in off-the-record conversations. Allegedly, they receive information that the commandos of the Afghan national army, who were left out of work after the US left the country, are receiving offers to join Russian private military companies. Now this information has become public, Foreign Policy magazine wrote about it. They say that from two hundred to three hundred people are left out of work and are forced to hide from the Taliban… And someone is trying to recruit them to Prigozhin’s company.
This is a big statement, isn’t it? If such people in Pakistan or Iran get some three or four dollars a day, then a thousand dollars a month from Wagner could really seduce them. But as a well-informed source in the American law enforcement agencies told me, the US intelligence services are aware of the situation. But as of now, not a single fact of recruitment has been recorded! And so far, they cannot say whether this is a serious challenge or Moscow’s wave of misinformation.
