Today at 13:05
There is a real prospect that a non-conventional attack by Russia on NATO – such as sabotage or arson – could lead to significant losses.
A senior Alliance official, James Appathurai, said this in an interview with Sky News.
Appathurai, who is engaged in updating NATO’s strategy on tracking and deterring so-called hybrid warfare, said that Alliance members must clearly understand among themselves and with Moscow what level of actions in the “gray zone” could provoke a response from the allies, including the use of military force.
He said that NATO’s 32 member countries are already in a situation where Russian hybrid attacks across Europe, the U.S., and Canada are nearing levels that, five years ago, would have been “absolutely unacceptable.”
The number of more “kinetic” actions – such as cutting vital underwater cables, sabotage against buildings, and placing incendiary devices in airplane cargo – has particularly increased since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
“We can definitely count dozens. Up to 100, certainly. But there are many more foiled plots,” said Appathurai, NATO’s Deputy Assistant Secretary-General for Innovation, Hybrid, and Cyber Technologies.
Answering the question of whether he is concerned that a potential Russian hybrid attack could exceed the threshold prompting NATO to apply a collective response under Article 5 – under which an attack on one is considered an attack on all – and go to war with Russia, Appathurai said: “What really worries me is that one of these attacks, as I mentioned, could break out on a large scale.”
“Thus, there is a real prospect that one of these attacks could lead to significant casualties or very substantial economic damage,” Appathurai stated.
“And then we don’t want to find ourselves in a situation where we haven’t thought through what to do next,” he added.
His team is updating NATO’s strategy for understanding, deterring, and countering hybrid warfare, which was last developed in 2015 when the threat was entirely different.
This work includes new Alliance efforts to develop plans for all likely hybrid attacks from Russia and other hostile actors, including China, Iran, and North Korea, to better understand the scale and focus of the challenge.
The updated policy, expected to be adopted at the 2025 summit, will also determine how NATO can better deter aggression and how it should respond – considering that any step by the Alliance could be perceived as escalation.
Let us remind you, Finnish police are investigating whether a vessel from Russia’s “shadow fleet” is involved in damaging the electrical cable running between Finland and Estonia.
Overall, as reported in Finland, disruptions were detected in the operation of four telecommunications cables in the Baltic Sea, connecting the country with Estonia and Germany.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, after the cable damage in the Baltic Sea, stated that the Alliance would strengthen its presence there.
Read also: Nearly 3.5M Ukrainians lose their homes during full-scale war — Ombudsman’s Office
