Today at 11:52
An expert in politics and analyst at the Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies explained how the German irregular elections will take place after one of the key parties left the coalition and how Ukraine and Germany will continue bilateral defense cooperation even outside NATO and EU (with certain joining both organizations in future).
— The most interesting question I would like to ask you is about Germany, the Republican victory in the USA, and its influence on German politics. We can see now that a sudden turbulence is taking place in German politics as a whole. Do you have any insight into what will happen next with the coalition falling apart?
— Yes, the coalition falling apart is not directly linked to the events in the United States. Obviously, this is being watched closely and may eventually impact Germany, but currently, this is a domestic issue. What we’ve seen here is simply the collapse of the current coalition—the so-called traffic light coalition between the Green Party, the Social Democratic Party, and the Free Democratic Party. We will now have early elections next year; otherwise, we would have had regular elections for the Bundestag, the parliament, in autumn of next year.
The main reason for this is that the Free Democratic Party wanted to exit the coalition to sharpen its political profile for the upcoming parliamentary elections. Currently, in opinion polls, the Free Democratic Party, an old German party, is polling at less than 5%, around 3%. But each party in Germany needs at least 5% to enter parliament and have its own faction.
That’s why the Liberal Democrats are breaking away from the coalition. We will have these early elections if, as expected next month, the vote of confidence for Scholz in parliament fails after one of the governmental parties has de facto left the government. Then we will have new elections.
— To get more details on that, what is the interest of the German general public in these elections? What do they want to change? When parties leave the coalition and early elections are set, there’s obviously a popular opinion pushing for change in politics.
— Yes, Germany has had a rather disappointing economic performance in the last few years.
The economy has either been shrinking or growing very slowly, and there’s a perception that Germany is falling behind other European countries and leading global nations.
So, there’s a clear demand for change. Additionally, there’s a need for clarification on certain issues. Ukraine is also likely to be one of the issues discussed in the upcoming parliamentary elections. Most likely, we will have a new coalition sometime next year, with a new chancellor.
— There’s a risk that the USA might become a more isolated ally in NATO. Do you see any possible response from European allies like Germany, the United Kingdom outside of the EU but within NATO, France, and other allies to boost their own security and deterrence against Russia in such a case?
— This is widely discussed, but so far, we’ve seen little action. Only some countries, especially in Scandinavia and Central Eastern Europe, have adjusted their policies, for example by increasing their defense budgets. However, many other countries are holding back, perhaps waiting to see what will happen. Trump is not yet president, and it’s still unclear what exactly he will do.
I’m afraid there will only be major and significant changes once it’s clear which direction Trump and the United States will take.
— We’ll likely see more of that in January when the president-elect takes office. Currently, we have some prospects for future cooperation between Ukraine and Germany. I know about two Rheinmetall enterprises that have opened in Ukraine. Do you see potential for cooperation between German and Ukrainian businesses outside of NATO and the EU? Joining NATO isn’t likely in the near future, and while joining the EU seems more optimistic, it’s still uncertain.
— Yes, indeed. These types of bilateral relations, such as those we now have between German companies like Rheinmetall and Ukraine, may be the most practical way forward in the coming years. As you rightly mentioned, neither NATO nor EU membership is likely to happen soon. I think it will happen eventually, but not within the next few years. So, the best approach for now is to pursue these bilateral agreements, as we’ve seen with security treaties, or cooperation like Rheinmetall’s current work with Ukraine.
— Do you see any possibility for cooperation beyond the military sector between Ukrainian and German companies, like in infrastructure—perhaps transport infrastructure, railways, or other projects to boost business after the war?
— I would say that some initiatives can already be started during the war. If infrastructure is destroyed, it can be repaired and rebuilt. Reconstruction should start now; we shouldn’t wait until after the war. In fact, there are already some projects underway, and there should be more. In infrastructure, especially, it’s crucial to have projects to build roads, railway connections, and improve transportation infrastructure. A lot of goods need to be transported to and from Ukraine, so this will be essential.
Read also: John Herbst: America Must Let Ukraine Win and Provide Even Tomahawk Missiles
