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Ukrainian developments are game changers in the war. Belarusian threats near the Ukrainian border. What is Lukashenko really afraid of?
In this interview with Ivan Stupak, military expert, former officer of the Security Service of Ukraine answered on this questions.
— So let’s talk about Ukrainian innovations in the sphere of ballistic and drone missiles. President Zelenskyy recently announced these innovations at his press conference. We’ve seen the first footage of the “Palianytsia” missile being used successfully against a Russian depot. What do you think about that?
— It’s great news for both the ballistic missile program and the jet drone technology. The “Palianytsia” is not just a drone; it could even be considered a cruise missile because, instead of a piston engine, it has a jet engine with an extended range. I believe that in the coming weeks, we will see more examples of successful usage of this type of munition. However, the main issue is the production of these munitions in sufficient numbers. One missile is good, but we need hundreds every month.
And what about the Ukrainian side’s claim regarding the successful first test flight of a Ukrainian ballistic missile? What do we know about this missile?
We only have assumptions at this point.
The range of the ballistic missile could vary from 500 to 700 kilometers. It could be ground-launched, and possibly air-launched or sea-launched, but it seems to be a ground-launched system.
The main flaw is that it doesn’t have a name yet, and it’s still just a test unit. Ukraine might need several months to start producing these missiles in significant quantities—perhaps 10 to 15 pieces per month.
— Minister of Digital Information Federov mentioned that each missile costs about $1 million. Can you comment on this and the potential for foreign investment in the missile program?
— Currently, it’s mainly the government that is investing in this, as private business involvement isn’t viable right now during the war. Finding external investment from companies like Lockheed Martin or Rheinmetall is unlikely during the war.
The production of Ukrainian munitions is crucial, and we need to produce them in large quantities. The Ukrainian military command will decide the targets for these munitions, and we have to wait until we can produce them in sufficient numbers.
— Moving on, there’s been some tension with Belarus, especially with their military activities and accumulation at the border with Ukraine. What are your thoughts on the actions of Lukashenko’s regime?
— I don’t expect provocations from the Belarusian regime, especially under Alexander Lukashenko. Over the last two years, Belarus has transferred a lot of military equipment to Russia. Belarusian military resources are almost depleted.
I don’t believe there will be an offensive operation from Belarus against Ukraine.
I recommend monitoring a public resource called Belarus Gayun, which tracks military equipment and troop movements. Currently, there’s no significant deployment of Belarusian troops or military equipment near the Ukrainian border.
— It seems like the Russian armed forces are utilizing all available resources from Belarus. This might be more about psychological operations against Western audiences rather than a real threat to Ukraine. What are your thoughts?
— It appears that Lukashenko is more focused on finding a successor than on the conflict. His health is not great, and he’s unlikely to be in power for much longer. He is reportedly considering potential successors, such as his son Nikolai or Natalia Kachanova.
Lukashenko would prefer to distance himself from the Ukrainian war and have it forgotten. He has even invited Chinese troops to Belarus for military drills, possibly to counterbalance Russian forces.
— Why doesn’t Lukashenko allow elections for his successor?
— Dictators like Lukashenko prefer not to hold elections because they risk unpredictable outcomes. He wants a successor who is both reliable and trustworthy. Elections could lead to an outcome that is not favorable to his regime.
Lastly, one more thing about military drills with Chinese troops.
Lukashenko aims to increase his army’s capabilities and train them as much as possible. The Belarusian army has not participated in any major conflicts since World War II, so their experience is minimal. Compared to Ukraine and Russia, Belarusian forces are relatively weak. Lukashenko is aware of this problem and is trying to address it through various means, including military drills with Chinese troops.
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