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In the event of a Russian attack on the Baltic countries, Casus belli may be a hybrid. NATO needs to seriously prepare for war. This opinion was expressed on the FREEDOM TV channel by political scientist, vice-president of the Politika analytical center Oleg Lisny.
“The Baltic countries are the main direction of Putin’s attack in his fevered fantasy. Therefore, this threat remains, it exists. But when I talk to our colleagues from the Baltic countries, they always refer to the fact that they are under the NATO umbrella. And here this Casus belli may be some kind of hybrid,” he said.
According to the political scientist, these will not be direct attacks, but there will be some other provocations, perhaps at the current stage.
“But we admit the option that a blow is struck at factories (for the production of drones – ed.), then there is no need to go far, this is aggression. And this is Article 5 of NATO [Charter]. And this point, which is very important, neither Putin nor NATO knows whether this article will work, how quickly it will be introduced. Most likely, it can already be viewed more positively. Because if Putin had attacked not Ukraine, but the Baltic countries back in 2014, history might have developed more harshly towards NATO. And NATO would not be ready for such an attack from Russia,” says Lisny.
According to him, now Ukraine is giving time to the entire NATO to change its mind and realize that this is an enemy in the form of Russia and it is necessary to prepare for war.
“And we see colossal exercises are beginning, and there will be more. Therefore, Ukraine has gained time for Article 5 to become a reality, and not just some hypothetical moment that is being discussed in Russia, NATO, and Ukraine – will it be used, put into effect, how quickly? Now, it seems to me, there are more chances than there could have been in 2014,” concluded Oleg Lisny.
Lisny previously expressed the opinion that the Baltic countries are more aware than other Europeans of the threat posed by the Russian Federation. They have found their most effective niche in helping Ukraine – the production of drones. Countries that show fear of Russia may disappear from the political map of the world. We must not be afraid, but act like the Baltic countries.
