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The Vilnius NATO summit sent a rather transparent message to the head of the Kremlin – Ukraine will be in the Alliance, whether the Kremlin wants it or not. In addition, the guarantees of the G7 countries given to Ukraine are a powerful signal to Putin: he will not win the war “for a long time”. Oleg Sahakyan, a political scientist and co-founder of the National Platform for Resilience and Cohesion, expressed this opinion on the air of the FREEDOM TV channel.
“We really see now de facto colossal support for Ukraine. The Vilnius summit became important precisely from the point of view of bringing this de facto into de jure, into bilateral, multilateral commitments to help Ukraine. And this is one loop of providing support. When we actually bring what we have into a normalized state, which allows us to protect ourselves from domestic political turbulence in Paris, London, Berlin or Washington. Regardless of who comes to power, so that Ukraine has guarantees and obligations to help us with weapons, ”the political scientist noted.
Another important point that Sahakyan drew attention to is the message to Putin. According to him, it was clearly demonstrated at the NATO summit: Ukraine will be invited to the Alliance and is already taking obligations to ensure this process.
“They declare in black and white that Ukraine will be in NATO. Further, the Allies admit that neither the Alliance nor Ukraine is yet ready for this. But there is a home task – you need to be politically prepared so that the allies can invite Ukraine. At present, there is no such consensus. Ukraine must be ready in terms of reforms and standards. There is also a common task – security on conditions that must be created by everyone together. The second circuit is assistance to Ukraine, bilateral programs. And the third circuit is what we are guaranteed after the end of the war until the moment we join NATO. Ukraine will not be alone in the fight against the aggressor, assistance will continue according to the institutionalized Rammstein formula,” the political scientist explained.
All this tells Moscow that it will not be possible to win the war “for a long time”, Sahakyan believes.
“After all, Russia thinks that it can drag out the conflict and win. That, perhaps, some regime will crumble somewhere, or a crisis will come in some country, or a cataclysm will happen in Europe, and, accordingly, they will not be up to Ukraine, they just need to hold out until this moment. But now it has been shown that this three-level system allows you to go through and get through any crisis in individual countries, or even in groups of countries, without having critical challenges for Ukraine. Most of the states will still be with it, and all the same, Kyiv’s support will remain sufficient to resist Russia. The message was sent to Putin that the “long” war cannot be won. Putin has no such chance. He lost, ”the guest of the broadcast emphasized.
Sahakyan also noted: the world has shown Russia – calculate the total share of economies that guarantee assistance to Ukraine both now and later: you will not pull out Russia.
“Maybe the military-industrial complex of Russia is able to pull it out with the support of Iran, North Korea and potentially Belarus? We summarize and show: no, it will not work. Among the allies of Ukraine are different countries with different potential and different reserves. But, nevertheless, in total it is much more than the capabilities of the Russian military-industrial complex,” Sahakyan added.
At the same time, he believes that the world is still trying to reason with Russia and force it to abandon its own ambitions without the collapse of the Putin regime.
“Of course, the world here is driven by the fear that Russia may fall apart, and, accordingly, this may destabilize the Central Asian region and others. The world is trying to make Ukraine win, Russia lose, but not be defeated. And at the Vilnius summit, this was in fact the last Chinese warning to Putin that he had no option to win, there were no options left to win at all. Accordingly, either he fixes his losses now, or he will have to do it later, or someone else will do it after him, ”the political scientist concluded.
Earlier, on the sidelines of the summit in Vilnius, Ukraine was in the spotlight. Prospects for joining the Alliance, assistance to Kyiv in the fight against Russian aggression, security guarantees, the creation of the Ukraine-NATO Council – this is not a complete list of agreements between the leaders of countries and Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky.
