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Russia will likely take advantage of the suspension of U.S. military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine to intensify its long-range strike campaign and deplete Ukrainian air defense missiles.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said this in a new report, according to Ukrinform.
Russian forces conducted one of the largest ever missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of March 6 to 7, the largest combined strike package against Ukraine since November 2024
Russian forces continue to adapt strike packages to suppress Ukrainian air defenses, increasing the total number of Shahed-type drones and camouflage drones in each strike.
According to analysts, Russian forces began increasing the number of Shahed and decoy drones in strike packages in the fall of 2024, likely to adapt to successful Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) innovations.
Analysts believe that Russia has likely leveraged the increased production of Shahed drones to increase the total number of drones launched in each strike package.
ISW published an infographic with statistics on Russian attacks on Ukraine since the beginning of the year, against the backdrop of the inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump, his phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and negotiations between the American and Russian delegations in Saudi Arabia.
Russian forces launched an average 83.4 drones per strike package in January 2025, an average of 139.3 drones per strike package in February 2024, and an average of 128.8 drones per strike package from March 1 through 7.
At the same time, Russian forces have only sporadically included missiles in the January, February, and March 2025 strike packages, and the 67 missiles launched in the March 6 to 7 strike series is a larger amount than in previous missile strikes this year.
ISW notes that Russian forces likely increased the combined number of Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles and Kh-101/Kh-55 cruise missiles in the March 6 to 7 strike packages to inflict maximum damage on select targets in Ukraine while using the large number of Shahed drones, decoy drones, and Kalibr cruise missiles to detect and overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses and mobile fire groups.
ISW analysts suggest that the suspension of U.S. intelligence is likely to affect Ukraine’s ability to respond quickly to Russian strikes.
Russia also likely intends to force Ukraine into quickly depleting its supply of Patriot air defense interceptors – which Ukraine relies on to defend against Russian ballistic missiles – during the pause in U.S. military aid and intelligence sharing to maximize the damage of subsequent strikes.
“Ukrainian forces will likely have to be more selective in intercepting strikes as their stock of interceptors decreases with no resupply on the horizon, and successful Russian strikes against Ukrainian energy facilities will likely have lasting effects on Ukraine’s ability to generate power for DIB and civilian use,” the ISW said.
In addition, Russian forces are further intensifying offensive operations in select frontline areas likely in order to capitalize on any immediate and longer-term battlefield impacts of the cessation of U.S. aid to Ukraine, the report said.
