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The Estonian Defence Forces’ Intelligence Centre estimated that in January 2025, capturing one square kilometer of Ukrainian territory cost Russia the lives of 100 soldiers from its occupying army.
This was stated by the deputy head of the Intelligence Centre, Janek Kesselman, as quoted by ERR.
According to Estonian intelligence, the current geopolitical events have not yet affected the course of combat operations in Ukraine.
“Fighting continues, both from the Russian Federation and from the Ukrainian armed forces,” he said.
The most notable battles took place in the Kursk region, where Ukrainian forces began an offensive from the town of Sudzha in the southeast direction.
At the same time, the situation on the Pokrovsk front, which is the main direction for the Russian occupying forces’ offensive, has not undergone significant changes.
In case of the capture of Pokrovsk, the next target for Russian forces will likely be the Sloviansk and Kramatorsk directions, but with the current pace, this will not happen quickly, according to Estonian intelligence.
“The occupation of the entire territory of Ukraine at such a pace will be possible by 2075,” Kesselman said.
Estonian intelligence assessed that compared to the end of last year, in January 2025, Russian occupying forces captured about 100 square kilometers less over the month, but at the same time, suffered losses of about 100 soldiers per square kilometer (killed and wounded).
The relatively high number of casualties – averaging from 1000 to 1500 killed and wounded per day – forces the Russian armed forces to send wounded soldiers into attacks, according to the intelligence center.
“The effectiveness of these ‘assault units’ is highly questionable, however, they wear down the Ukrainian forces (primarily due to ammunition exhaustion) and allow Russia to avoid treating war invalids and paying further assistance,” the intelligence reports.
According to Kesselman, Ukraine is currently holding up very well on all fronts.
“Of course, it is extremely difficult for them, there are many casualties, but the losses of the Russian Federation are clearly greater than those of Ukraine,” the Estonian intelligence representative added.
Earlier, it was reported that, according to Estonian intelligence, the Russian Federation currently does not pose a direct military threat to Estonia.
The Estonian intelligence report also noted that China helps Russia bypass sanctions and supplies components for drones.
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