Today at 17:05
Amidst all that, what can be called cautious pro-Ukrainian action, what is going on in Germany? Each time putin makes an angry face, Europe just backs off in fear – why? New German if-chancellor Friedrich Merz – what’s to expect. When Trump is in office, what is the absolute first thing he will do regarding Ukraine?
We discussed that with Sergiy Sumlenny, Eastern Europe politics expert.
— Trump suddenly announced that he has no intention to cut American military aid, and Europe is also ramping up militarily. Amidst all that cautious pro-Ukrainian action, what is going on in Germany these days? How is Friedrich Merz doing these days?
— As for whether Trump will do anything for Ukraine beyond what Biden and Sullivan have done recently, I think Trump can actually do much more than his critics expect. It’s important to understand that the Biden administration, or rather the Biden-Sullivan administration, has relied on one ultimate argument: “We are better than Trump.”
Their claim is, “If Trump comes to office, he will betray Ukraine, throw it under the train.” But I see no reason why Trump would be significantly worse than Biden.
We all know about the connections between Trump’s team and Russia, but don’t we see the same connections in the Biden administration? Don’t we hear calls from them saying, “Russia should be spared, Ukraine shouldn’t attack Russian oil facilities,” etc.?
Now, Trump wants to prove himself—to prove to Americans and the world that he can end this war. If he negotiates with Putin, it won’t last a week before Putin betrays him, lies to him, and manipulates him. The real question is: What will Trump do the day after Putin throws the signed peace agreement into the trash?
I believe Trump’s reaction might be more realistic and effective than all of Biden’s attempts to find common ground with Putin.
— Thank you very much. That covered a lot of topics. Let’s turn back to Trump and Putin. Each time Putin makes an angry face and sends some old Soviet junk like the RS-28 Sarmat or whatever, Europe backs off, fearing escalation. What is this phenomenon?
— I think Putin knows very well how to leverage Western politicians. This leverage is incompetence and fear—or fear and incompetence. These press conferences are aimed at Western politicians, not at domestic or Ukrainian audiences.
He understands that nuclear fear is deeply ingrained in Germany. Generations of German politicians were raised during the Cold War, fearing nuclear Armageddon. Now, Putin taps into those same fears.
When Putin threatens with weapons like the RS-28, Ukraine’s reaction is, “So what? You’re already trying to exterminate us with conventional weapons. Adding one missile won’t change anything.” But Europe reacts with fear, saying, “Maybe we should stop Ukraine from defending itself, or maybe Ukraine shouldn’t attack Russia.”
This approach only emboldens Russia, increasing its demands. Ukraine must strike Russia with all available weapons and push for more from the West. Only through force will Russia stop threatening Ukraine.
— Do you think Friedrich Merz, if he becomes Germany’s new chancellor, will be more decisive?
— We all hope the reign of Olaf Scholz and the Social Democratic Party ends. Friedrich Merz, leader of the Christian Democratic Union, is the most likely candidate to succeed him.
However, if Merz becomes chancellor, Russia will target him with disinformation, active measures, and possibly terrorist attacks. We’ve already seen a terrorist attack in Marburg, with 10 killed and 200 injured. Far-right groups like Alternative for Germany will use such incidents to gain votes.
Merz would likely adopt a much more realistic and consistent policy toward Russia and Ukraine. Still, as a chancellor, his actions will be more restricted than his words are now as opposition leader. Even so, I believe Ukraine will finally receive Taurus missiles under Merz, something Scholz would never agree to.
— My sincerest condolences to the people of Germany for what happened in Marburg.
One final question before you go. If Trump returns to office, what’s the first thing he’ll do regarding Ukraine?
— We don’t know for sure. What we do know is that Trump’s scale of action is much broader than Biden’s.
Biden’s strategy has been to support Ukraine just enough to prevent defeat, but not enough for a decisive victory. It’s a slow bleed, marketed as strong support.
Trump, on the other hand, might stop support entirely, increase it significantly, or issue ultimatums to Russia. He could even order strikes on Russian military bases, as he did in Syria, or impose harsh sanctions on Russian companies.
Trump is more reckless but also more realistic than Biden. This makes him both more promising and more dangerous. Biden guarantees Ukraine’s defeat in the long run. With Trump, Ukraine’s defeat is possible—but so is Ukraine’s victory.
Read also: James Sherr: European Peacekeepers in Ukraine & North Korean Troops in Kursk – What’s Next?
