Today at 00:32
How dead is Bashar Al-Asad – can Russia try to get him back to power? Trilateral meeting in Paris of Zelenskyy, Trump and Macron – any good signs for Ukraine? Can Trump force Putin to negotiate?
— Bashar al-Assad—sorry, but I need to ask. A political corpse, physically and reportedly alive. Now, if he’s alive, can the Kremlin even try to restore him to power? What do you think?
— My feeling is that this is now a lost cause, and I can’t imagine how they will bring back their presence there. It’s quite embarrassing—not just for Putin personally, but for the Assad regime as well. This regime, including Assad’s father’s era, has been a client not just of the post-Soviet Russian Federation but also of the Soviet Union. So, this is a quite historic loss for Moscow—not just for Russia but also for Soviet Russia.
— How come? Assad’s regime is said to have weakened Putin’s regime. I’ve heard that before, but how come?
— Actually, that’s a good question. I’m not much of a regional expert, but in general, these sorts of regimes tend to fall at some point, and usually quite spectacularly.
This is, I would say, a structural problem that authoritarian regimes have. They lack the instruments to interact with society properly. As tensions between the regime and society rise, eventually, the regime collapses.
— All right. Well, let’s hope that two connected dictatorial regimes collapse together. Why not? That would be a fine holiday for all of us in Europe.
By the way, talking about Europe and America—united, somewhat united—there was a trilateral meeting in Paris with Zelenskyy, Trump, and Macron. Notre Dame reopened and all that—very fancy. Some even say game-changing. Do you see any positive signs for Ukraine in the bare facts of that meeting?
— I wouldn’t call it game-changing, but it was certainly good that Zelensky was there and communicated with Trump, and that Macron was part of it.
Whether this will result in what Ukraine hopes for is another question. But so far, it doesn’t look too bad. Let’s see what will come out of it. The signs so far are good, but with Trump, one never knows.
— Well, indeed, Trump walking and Trump talking are two different personalities. Which, it turns out, isn’t too bad for Ukraine.
So, Trump says, “Now I know Vladimir Putin. It is his time to act if he wants to stop this war.” We all know that Vladimir Putin not only does not want to stop this war but surely would love to start more wars, if he can.
With Assad’s regime down, Trump’s rhetoric, and Europe rising, do you believe Putin will actually stop and sit at the table to negotiate at some point?
— Yes, if Trump makes his sort of veiled threats credible and plausibly says he’s going to increase support for Ukraine. Then there would be motivation for Russia to come to the table for negotiations.
The problem here is: what will the deal be? If it’s a deal where both Ukraine and international law lose, it would essentially allow Putin to harvest the fruits of his aggression. That would not only be bad for Eastern Europe and Ukraine but would also harm the international order, as it might encourage other countries to attempt similar aggressions.
This is going to be far more complicated than many people imagine.
— Absolutely. But what if Putin doesn’t react to what Trump does and takes Trump’s efforts for granted, as he seems to be doing now? Trump has said publicly many times, “If Putin doesn’t act, I’ll give Ukraine everything it needs to turn the tide of this war.” My question is: Will Trump actually do it? Will he give all the military aid and money needed to turn the tide of this war?
— That’s a good question. Someone in Washington might be better qualified to answer, although with Trump, one never knows.
To me, he’s unpredictable. If he does indeed give Ukraine everything it needs, that would be the best-case scenario. Ukraine could fully recover and liberate the territories it has lost.
That wouldn’t just be the best solution for Ukraine but also the best solution for the international order and international law.
Read also: Sanctions FAILED: Steven Pifer on UATV
