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According to CNN, Russian leader Vladimir Putin is unlikely to enter peace negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, regardless of who wins the U.S. presidential election. CNN reports that while U.S. policy may be at a crossroads, there are no clear signs that Russia would engage in talks, no matter who is in the White House.
Analysts cited by CNN suggest that Putin would aim to exploit perceived U.S. political dysfunction and “cracks in Western unity” under any American president. These divisions could arise from reduced U.S. support under a Trump administration, a weakened NATO role, or internal splits within Congress. Financial pressures on European allies, along with the influence of pro-Russian leaders in NATO members like Hungary and Slovakia, also play a role.
Thomas Graham, a Russian foreign policy expert, told CNN that without Western unity or a clear vision from the West and Ukraine, “Putin has no reason to reconsider his actions in Ukraine.” Additionally, CNN notes that the war’s scale is too vast for simple negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv, as it reflects a broader conflict between Russia and the West.
John Lough, an associate fellow at Chatham House, argues that for Putin, “Ukraine is a means to an end,” with the goal being to curb U.S. influence globally. He suggests that if advisors clarify to Trump the dynamics at play—especially China’s key role in supporting Russia—Trump’s stance toward Putin may shift. Lough added that any concessions would be viewed by Beijing as a sign of U.S. weakness.
CNN also observes that Ukraine is already strained, while Putin appears willing to endure high casualties. Should Trump reduce U.S. aid, Ukraine could find itself in a worsening position. However, even if U.S. support remains steady, Western allies may still lack the commitment needed to enable Ukraine to achieve significant military gains.
Meanwhile, The Washington Post reports that Russia is quietly rooting for Trump’s victory, though his potential approach to ending the Ukraine war may ultimately be unacceptable to Moscow.
Read also: In past month, Russia loses over $2.7B worth of military hardware on battlefield – MoD Ukraine
