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Russian forces lack sufficient manpower and equipment to sustain an intense offensive, and the current Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine will likely reach a culmination within the next few months, if not weeks.
This was reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The Russian offensive actions in eastern Ukraine, which began in the fall of 2023, continue to lead to gradual tactical successes in certain sections of the front, but operationally significant gains will likely continue to elude Russian forces.
Ukrainian troops are conducting an effective defense deep within the front line, inflicting significant losses on Russian forces. They are slowly relinquishing positions but preventing the Russian military from making rapid advances on the battlefield. Ukrainian forces face serious operational challenges and limitations, which provide Russian forces opportunities to achieve tactically significant successes.
Russian forces have recently made notable tactical gains but have not demonstrated the ability to capture operationally important objectives. ISW distinguishes between tactical successes, which are significant at the tactical level of the war in the immediate vicinity of the fighting, and operational successes, which are significant at the operational level and impact large sections of the entire front line.
As of October 1, Russian forces captured Vuhledar in western Donetsk region, and this settlement will likely provide Russian forces with a better tactical position to continue their operational efforts aimed at advancing toward the H-15 highway (Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia) and eliminating a broad Ukrainian salient in western Donetsk region.
“The capture of Vuhledar by Russian forces alone will not radically change the operational situation in western Donetsk region, and Russian forces will likely continue to pursue their operational objectives in this area during the ongoing offensive in western Donetsk region. Russian offensive operations aimed at achieving operationally important objectives, such as the attempt to capture Chasiv Yar or push Ukrainian forces from the left (eastern) bank of the Oskil River, have either stalled or are progressing extremely slowly over a prolonged period.
Russian forces remain focused on advancing towards Pokrovsk, and the operational significance of capturing the city will likely partly depend on the Russian military’s ability to use it in a broader operational maneuver in Donetsk region,” analyst said.
