Today at 19:46
Following a meeting in Saudi Arabia, Ukraine agreed to an immediate 30-day ceasefire if Russia also takes the same step.
In turn, Putin, during his conversation with the self-proclaimed president of Belarus, stated that the Russian side allegedly agrees with the proposal to halt hostilities. However, he insists that this ceasefire must lead to a long-term peace and the “elimination of the root causes of the conflict.”
Putin emphasized that a ceasefire is only possible under certain guarantees. Specifically, whether Ukraine will continue mobilization, whether it will receive weapons, how issues of control and verification will be resolved, and who will determine violations along the nearly 2,000-kilometer front. Additionally, he stressed that the ceasefire should not allow Ukraine to regroup or rearm but should facilitate the achievement of a long-term peace that takes Russia’s interests into account.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy has already responded to Putin’s statements, saying that the Russian side is essentially preparing to refuse at this point.
U.S. President Donald Trump expressed “cautious optimism” regarding the Russian dictator’s statements. He emphasized that Putin “made a very promising statement, but it was not complete.” Trump also said he is ready to talk with the Kremlin leader to ensure a ceasefire.
Thus, Putin’s demands to halt Ukraine’s mobilization and Western military aid raise serious concerns both for Ukraine and its strategic partners. Moreover, they complicate the process of reaching an agreement on a ceasefire.
Agreeing to these conditions would mean a strategic defeat for Ukraine. Stopping mobilization and military aid would create conditions for Russia’s strengthening and Ukraine’s weakening, inevitably leading to a new offensive by the Russian army under significantly worse conditions for Kyiv.
According to military expert, retired Colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleh Zhdanov, stopping mobilization processes would give Putin a significant advantage, as it would create a serious problem for replenishing reserves. Restarting the process later would be very difficult, requiring additional time, resources, and political will.
In his view, even if a temporary ceasefire is reached, Russia will use this time to redeploy troops, stockpile ammunition, and prepare for a new offensive, putting Ukraine in an extremely disadvantageous position.
It should be noted that none of the previous ceasefires, including those during the Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO) in Donbas, were observed or implemented by the Russian side. Therefore, the Ukrainian side has certain reservations regarding Russia’s readiness to comply with the conditions of the U.S.-proposed 30-day ceasefire.
Moreover, Putin’s statements regarding events in the Kursk region raise questions.
“What will we do with this area of incursion in the Kursk region? If we stop hostilities for 30 days, does that mean that those who are there will leave without a fight? Should we let them out of there?… Will the Ukrainian leadership order them to lay down their arms and surrender? How will this work? It’s unclear,” Putin said.
Even more concerning are his orders to create a so-called “sanitary zone” near Russia’s borders. In reality, this means expanding the combat zone into other Ukrainian regions—Sumy and Chernihiv. In other words, he is sending a clear military-political signal of readiness for further offensives into Ukraine, not only in the regions he has claimed as part of Russia but also in other Ukrainian territories. This is an expansion of the battlefield.
Such statements by the Russian dictator should be seen purely as an element of military-political pressure on Ukraine and the United States to force them to accept Russia’s version of ending the war. This is especially relevant given that the governor of Sumy Oblast has already reported that Russia has deployed significant operational reserves to the border.
These are the external challenges facing Ukraine amid Russia’s so-called proposals for a 30-day ceasefire.
Regarding these proposals themselves—they essentially amount to the demilitarization of Ukraine. It is not just about prohibiting arms supplies to Ukraine’s Defense Forces for 30 days. The Russian side is making these demands as a condition for ending the war.
Recently, Putin’s aide Ushakov stated that Russia does not want a temporary truce with Ukraine but is allegedly interested in a long-term settlement. He claimed that Russia’s goal is a “long-term peaceful settlement” that must take into account Russia’s “legitimate interests.” Meanwhile, a ceasefire, in his view, is nothing more than a temporary respite for the Ukrainian military.
Thus, the 30-day ceasefire under the Russian version is a test phase. If Ukraine and the United States accept the ban on arms supplies now, it will set a precedent for fulfilling Russia’s demands in the future. This is what the Russian side calls Ukraine’s demilitarization. Their ultimate demand is the prohibition of weapons supplies, training of Ukrainian Defense Forces, and a reduction in Ukraine’s army size. Therefore, these proposals should be viewed solely from this perspective.
On one hand, Russia demands Ukraine’s demilitarization, while on the other, it is preparing further annexations of Ukrainian territories. Therefore, accepting these conditions is impossible. It is a trap—political, diplomatic, military, and informational.
Head of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence (HUR) Kyrylo Budanov noted that there are clear signs that Russia needs a pause in the war. According to Budanov, the war against Ukraine is costing Russia about $1 billion per day.
“They have reached the peak of their production capacity. Russia spends 41% of its official budget on the war. We have partners in this matter, but they are using their own funds,” he said.
Budanov’s information about the Russian dictator’s plans is confirmed by U.S. intelligence representatives. According to their data, Putin is not ready for peace. He still wants to conquer Ukraine. Recently, The Washington Post published classified U.S. intelligence reports that cast doubt on Putin’s willingness to end the war, assessing that the Russian dictator has not abandoned his goal of dominating Ukraine.
Some current and former U.S. officials have stated that even if Putin agrees to a temporary ceasefire, he will use it to rest and rearm his troops. In their view, the Russian dictator will likely break the agreement, create a provocation, and blame Ukraine.
Amid statements from intelligence representatives in Ukraine and the U.S. regarding Russia’s plans, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called for preventing Ukraine’s demilitarization. He emphasized that a strong army is the most important guarantee of security for the country.
Scholz also praised the U.S. commitment to resuming arms supplies to Ukraine. In his view, this made it clear that “the Russian president cannot simply count on winning on the battlefield because Ukraine’s support is growing.”
The U.S. has already explicitly stated that it will fully restore arms supplies and intelligence sharing. There are already reports of high-precision guided bombs being supplied to Ukraine. The Americans will put more pressure on Russia and support Ukraine even more if Putin does not agree to ceasefire terms.
Additionally, Ukraine’s support is reinforced by economic pressure, particularly the ban on Russian banks under sanctions from conducting transactions with end consumers for Russian oil and gas. These are significant measures that did not exist under Biden’s administration.
Military-political analyst Dmytro Sniehyrov.
Previous reviews by the author:
Occupiers Have Intensified in the Kupiansk Direction: Goals Analyzed by Dmytro Sniehyrov
Moscow Plans to Mobilize “Cons” and Debtors to the Front — Analysis by Dmytro Sniehyriov
